SOUTHEAST REGION

• Population - Is the region growing and by how much?
• Diversity - Is the area becoming more diverse and where?
• Age - How is the region aging and where are certain age cohorts more prevalent?
• Income - How are regional incomes changing over time?
• Employment - What are the major sectors and how does this influence local incomes and housing?
• Housing Occupancy - What are trends in ownership and renters?
• Housing Vacancy - Is the region seeing more housing vacancy and where?
• Housing Age - How old is the housing stock and what does this mean for policy?
• Housing Condition - Correlated to the age of housing, a snapshot of where the condition is above or below average.
• Owner and Renter Cost Burden - Are residents in the region experiencing more or less burden to pay for housing, not including other necessary expenses like transportation?

Note, there are concerns throughout the country regarding undercounts in the 2020 population. Minorities and those in poverty are mostly likely to be under counted. 

• Most areas in the Southeast region saw population loss since 2010. Participants during the process recognized this challenge, citing the lack of quality housing as a significant factor affecting population growth. 
• Montgomery and Crawford had between 10% and 20% of their populations at-risk for being under counted. It is even higher in Lyon County, where over 20% were at risk.
• For Crawford, assuming even 1/10 of that population was under counted reverses the population loss of the 2010s. If that assumption is a quarter, then both Crawford and Lyon experienced much stronger growth than reported. 
• Growth did occur closer to the Kansas City Metro where people can more easily commute to Kansas City Metro employment areas. 

A population profile of the Southeast Region

• Minority population includes all those that do not identify themselves white, non-Hispanic.
• The region became more diverse and for many counties, by a higher rate since 2010 than the state. However, overall counties in the region are still less diverse than the state.

Change in Minority Population 2010-2020

The region is aging, with all counties seeing an increase in the share of people over 55 years old since 2010.  

More urban areas and counties with higher education institutions have lower shares of people over 55 years old.

• Miami County saw the largest increase in the share of population over 55 years old, followed closely by Elk County. Miami County grew in overall population since 2020 and is likely attracting all age ranges because of its proximity to Kansas City, community service in Paola, Louisburg, and Osawatomie, and increasing levels of housing construction. 

Population Over 55 Years Old - 2019

Population by Age – Southeast region vs Kansas - 2019

• Except for Miami and Coffey Counties, median incomes are well below the state. 
• However, many counties did see real household income growth since 2010. 
• For renter households:

1. Real median household incomes grew in 11 of 19 counties since 2010. 
2. The largest percent increase was seen in Anderson County.
3. The largest decrease was in Woodson County.

• For owner households:

1. Real median household incomes grew in 13 of 19 counties since 2010.
2. The largest percent increase was seen in Lyon County.
3. The largest decrease was in Chautauqua County.

• The illustration to the right shows what typical wages might be for common jobs in the region. Even with real income growth in many counties, there are still essential workers that make much less and require appropriate housing options locally or must spend more on transportation costs to live outside of where they work.

Median Household Income - 2019

Median Salary of Local Metro Occupations

People with adequate incomes may first decide where they want to live rather than first seek employment. However, many other people do not have as much flexibility and must find housing after finding employment. 

• The Southeast region experienced the largest percentage decline of population in the civilian workforce. Much of this decline can be explained by the aging population reaching retirement but some is also likely due to job losses. 
• The regional employment base includes a strong focus on manufacturing and health care. The wage ranges in the fields can vary greatly, but all include entry level essential worker positions like nurses, school teachers, and line workers.

Percent Change in Civilian Labor Force - 2010-2019

Where the Southeast Region’s Employed Civilian Population Works - 2019

• The counties with the most population have a higher share of renter households. Two of these counties, Lyon and Crawford, are also home to state universities and student populations that seek rental housing. A growing county like Miami will likely need more rental housing options in the future, although Spring Hill in Johnson County provides some of this need for the area.

Percent Owner-Occupied Households - 2019

A 5% to 6% vacancy rate is a good rate for a community. At this rate housing options exist for those looking to move to an area or change housing type. However, the vacancy rate does not always tell the full story. When the vacant units are in poor condition they may not be meeting community needs.

• Like many areas of Kansas, vacancy rates increased in all counties between 2010 and 2020. The largest percent increase was in Chautauqua County, a county that has one of the oldest housing stocks in the region.
• Other counties with relatively lower vacancy rates like Anderson and Allen County have the most housing stock in average or below condition. This could mean people living in lower quality units because nothing else is available. 
• The higher rates in Lyon and Crawford Counties could be related to the Pandemic in 2020 and students potentially not filling as many units, choosing to learn remotely from home. 
• It will be important for counties to understand the local causes of vacancy rates above 10% and then formulate appropriate strategies.

Change in Vacancy – Southeast region vs Kansas

The age and condition of housing is often reflected in the costs for housing. This page shows the relation of housing age to home value for owner units. 

In the Southeast region, similar to others in the state, home in more rural counties are older, reflective of lower building activity in recent decades. 

Areas with an older housing stock also tend to have lower home values and a higher percentage of the stock as single-family detached units.  

This matches the challenges heard in the public input regarding new homes in rural areas not appraising at the cost to build. 

Housing Stock % Single Family Detached Households - 2019

Median Year Built of Housing and Median House Value by County

• Ratings above average generally represent recently built units, such as shown in Miami County.
• The condition of homes in the region vary by county, although conditions seem somewhat lower on the eastern side of the region. 
• The high percentage of homes rated fair to average in many counties will be important to conserve as affordable housing units, especially as the population ages and it becomes more challenging for these households to maintain upkeep of homes. 

One metric to evaluate whether a home is affordable to a home buyer is to compare their household income to the value of the home. This metric can be adapted to evaluate the affordability of housing markets in different counties.

An affordable, self-sustaining housing market with adequate value and revenues to support market-rate new construction, typically exhibits a value to income ratio between 2.0 to 3.0. Ratios above 3.0 present significant affordability issues while ratios below 2.0 are significantly undervalued relative to income.

• Many of the counties in the region are undervalued – a combination of limited construction activity, existing housing conditions, market price. 
• Crawford, Linn, Lyon, Miami, and Osage fall in the middle and are perhaps more viable areas for market rate development.

Another important metric in housing affordability is what the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines as, “families who pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation, and medical care.” The map above shows the percent of owners who spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing.

• Four counties in the region saw an increase since 2010 in the share of homeowners that are cost burdened.  

Those burdened by their home are less financially resilient to other changes that may occur including job loss, rising fuel costs, and medical expenses.

Value to Income Ratio - 2019

A metric to measure affordability of rentals is to compare gross rent and rental household incomes, in addition to the HUD defined cost burden status of paying more than 30 percent of income on housing.

• The share of renters that are cost burdened did increase in most counties to varying extents. The high percentages in Lyon and Crawford Counties are partially attributed to college student populations.
• There were more counties that saw an increase percent of cost burdened renters from 2010-2019 than owners that are cost burdened. 
• Median gross rent tends to be lower in more rural counties, and this often correlates with a lower percentage of cost burdened renters. However, as noted previously, these units may be in poor condition and not desirable for many households. 

Renter Conditions - 2019

Of the 408 respondents living in Southeast Kansas:

• Survey respondents were fairly evenly split between age cohorts above 25 years old.
• About 84% of survey respondents are white alone. 
• Hispanic or Latino respondents represent 3% of respondents. 
• Most are homeowners (78%). Of those that rent, 64% do so by necessity. This is more than most other regions. 
• When asked if they were interested in moving, 40% noted they are happy with where they live. Of those indicating they would consider moving, the most (20%) said to a different community for quality of life reasons.
• The largest share of respondents’ household income was between $100,000 was $149,999. This is much higher than the median income for counties in the region and must be considered in evaluating results. 

Respondents from Southeast Kansas feel that seniors would be most interested in an owner-occupied home with shared maintenance or apartment with services. 

What type of housing do you believe area seniors and the elderly are most interested in?

Which types of housing solutions would you support to reduce the cost of housing in your county (select all that apply)?

Respondents and stakeholder discussions showed good support for policy directed at existing homes and assistance directly to residents. When questioned further, respondents most favored programs targeted at:

• Housing rehabilitation loans
• Down payment and mortgage assistance to owners
• Mortgage assistance to homeowners
• Grants or low-interest loans to housing developments

Respondents were nearly equally favorable about using public funds to remove dilapidated housing and rehab of housing. 

Does your city or county need increased or continued use of city/public funding for housing rehabilitation or renovations?

• Using data from the Kansas Department of Labor, the Census, and commuting patterns help demonstrate housing demand for the region through the next several years. Factors included in the forecast:
• Regional employment projections. A portion of new jobs in the coming year can and will be filled by people who live in each region.
• Job openings from retirements. A portion of residents in the region will retire in the coming years. Jobs that new retirees previously occupied will open for new employees, but a housing unit will not. 
• Natural population changes. The population is aging in most regions and will decline over time without an in-migration of residents or significant change in birth rates. The Southwest region is projected to have natural population growth.
• Replacement need. A portion of homes will require demolition in the coming years. Other houses will be lost from accidents such as fires or neglect across each region. 
• Other assumptions. The full methodology with population forecasts and housing price points are included in the appendix of this housing assessment.

The following opportunities and challenges are based on the market analysis, surveys, and regional listening sessions. 

Counties in the southern portion of the region have some of the lowest home values in the state. It could be assumed that this makes the region very affordable and thus more appealing but it actually has the opposite effect. Low values make it challenging to build or rehabilitate housing due to lack of comparables. 

The Southeast region has some of the lowest incomes in the state. This also hampers the ability to rehabilitate older housing and makes it challenging to support new construction. 

Many people and employers express the need for workers. A strong job market promotes growth through increased employment opportunities, increased property tax base, and generally stable wages. As seen since 2010, job opportunities do not guarantee population growth. If housing is unavailable or is low-quality, households will choose to live elsewhere. Housing is important to translate job opportunities with population growth. 

The Southeast region has the resources to train and educate the next generation of workforce. However, expanding the building trades programs will be essential to constructing and rehabilitating housing. 

Many in the region are missing the technical experience with developing and implementing housing programs. Some communities would like to start a housing program but do not know where to start. Some regional knowledge sharing or technical assistance could be enough to stimulate new housing programs in some communities.

There are many employers with job opportunities. In many instances, existing employees in the region are commuting long distances from urban areas like Kansas City, Wichita, or Topeka. More modern rental options would entice some new employees to rent in the community first, and perhaps establish roots to purchase a home.