SHAWNEE / DOUGLAS REGION

• Population - Is the region growing and by how much?
• Diversity - Is the area becoming more diverse and where?
• Age - How is the region aging and where are certain age cohorts more prevalent?
• Income - How are regional incomes changing over time?
• Employment - What are the major sectors and how does this influence local incomes and housing?
• Housing Occupancy - What are trends in ownership and renters?
• Housing Vacancy - Is the region seeing more housing vacancy and where?
• Housing Age - How old is the housing stock and what does this mean for policy?
• Housing Condition - Correlated to the age of housing, a snapshot of where the condition is above or below average.
• Owner and Renter Cost Burden - Are residents in the region experiencing more or less burden to pay for housing, not including other necessary expenses like transportation?

• Both counties saw population growth since 2010. However, Douglas County grew over 7% since 2010 versus about 0.55% in Shawnee County. 
• This matches conversations regarding many people’s desire to live in Douglas County even if they work in Shawnee County. 
• While the student population at the University of Kansas does get counted, enrollment remained similar between 2010 and 2020. -

A population profile of the Shawnee/ Douglas Region

• Minority population includes all those that do not identify themselves white, non-Hispanic.
• Douglas County became more diverse since 2010 but is still less diverse than the state overall.
• The share of minority population remains similar in Shawnee County between 2010 and 2020.
• Like other counties, minority populations tend to be higher in areas with lower median incomes. 

Change in Minority Population 2010-2020

• The University of Kansas influences the percent of population over 55 years old in Douglas County. In Shawnee County, the share of those over 55 years old are more consistently spread throughout Topeka. 
• For both counties, there was an increase in the number of individuals over the age of 55. Nationally, many college and university cities are finding retirees, often alumni, returning because of the amenities the communities offer. They are often supporting some of the higher market rate construction.  

Population Over 55 Years Old - 2019

Population by Age – Shawnee / Douglas region vs Kansas - 2019

• Median household incomes in the counties are similar to the state overall. 
• Higher income households are in the rural areas and outer rings. These are also the areas where more new housing development occurs. 
• Median household income for owners and renters did increase in each county since 2010, even when adjusting for inflation.
• The student population being removed from Douglas County would likely result in a significant increase in the county’s median income.  
• The illustration below shows what typical wages might be for common jobs in the region. Even with real income growth in many counties, there are still essential workers that make much less and require appropriate housing options locally or must spend more on transportation costs to live outside where they work.

Median Household Income - 2019

Median Salary of Local Metro Occupations

• Combined, the counties have the lowest owner-occupancy rate in the state (64% in Shawnee County and 51% in Douglas County). 
• There also are some Census tracts with higher populations over 55 years old and higher rental occupancy. These may be empty-nesters who have downsized to high-end rental options. 
• Of note, as a county overall, Douglas County had a percent owner-occupied housing of about 54% in 2010 versus about 51% in 2019. 
• Shawnee County had a percent owner-occupied housing of about 67% in 2010 versus about 64% in 2019. 

Percent Owner-Occupied Households - 2019

A 5% to 6% vacancy rate is a good rate for a community. At this rate housing options exist for those looking to move to an area or change housing type. However, the vacancy rate does not always tell the full story. When the vacant units are in poor condition they may not be meeting community needs. The number of vacant units for Shawnee and Douglas County are illustrated to the right. 

• Vacancy tends to be lower than other parts of the state.
• Vacancy fell in some areas and increased in others since 2010.
• Discussions with real estate professionals, landlords, and city staff indicated widespread low vacancy throughout Topeka and Lawrence. 

Change in Vacancy – Shawnee / Douglas region vs Kansas

Vacancy Rate - 2020

The age and condition of housing is often reflected in the costs for housing. 

Douglas County has a newer housing stock than Shawnee County, but both appear to have a new housing stock than any other region. The age of housing closely matches the spread of development out from the core of Topeka and where infrastructure extensions have occurred in Lawrence.  

Housing Stock % Single Family Detached Households - 2019

Median Age of Housing - 2019

• One metric to evaluate whether a home is affordable to a home buyer is to compare their household income to the value of the home. This metric can be adapted to evaluate the affordability of housing markets in different counties.
• An affordable, self-sustaining housing market with adequate value and revenues to support market-rate new construction, typically exhibits a value to income ratio between 2.0 to 3.0. Ratios above 3.0 present significant affordability issues while ratios below 2.0 are significantly undervalued relative to income. 
• Under the value to income metric, Douglas County is unaffordable for many people. Shawnee County falls in the middle. Both are viable markets for housing development but some older neighborhoods in Topeka struggle with undervaluations. This matches conversations with stakeholders. 
• Another important metric in housing affordability is what the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development defines as, “families who pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation, and medical care.” The map above shows the percent of owners who spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing.
• The share of cost-burden owners decreased in both Douglas and Shawnee County since 2010. 
• Those burdened by their home are less financially resilient to other changes that may occur including job loss, rising fuel costs, and medical expenses.

Value to Income Ratio - 2019

A metric to measure affordability of rentals is to compare gross rent and rental household incomes, in addition to the HUD defined cost burden status of paying more than 30 percent of income on housing.

• The share of cost burdened renters increased in Shawnee County since 2010. This is correlated with lower incomes in the county.  
• While estimated gross rents are below the rent at 30 percent of median rental incomes in Shawnee County, this means the units available match renter needs. Lower rent units might be lower condition, have a limited number of bedrooms, or missing other accommodations needed by families or seniors.
• Gross rents are higher than the calculated rent at 30 percent of median renter income. This is likely partially attributed to the student population and off-campus student housing options – a population that has low income but housing often supported by a parent or other aid. 

Renter Conditions - 2019

Of the 417 respondents living in Shawnee and Douglas County:

• Survey respondents were fairly evenly split between age cohorts above 25 years old.
• About 85% of survey respondents are white alone. 
• Hispanic or Latino respondents represent 4% of respondents. 
• Most are homeowners (64%). Of those that rent, 65% do so by necessity. This is more than most other regions. 
• When asked if they were interested in moving, 39% noted they are happy with where they live. Of those indicating they would consider moving, the most (20%) said from a rental to purchase a home followed closely by to a different community for quality of life reasons (19%).
• The largest share of respondents’ household income was between $50,000 and $74,999. 

Respondents from Shawnee and Douglas County feel that seniors would be most interested in an owner-occupied home with shared maintenance or apartment with services. 

What type of housing do you believe area seniors and the elderly are most interested in?

Which types of housing solutions would you support to reduce the cost of housing in your county (select all that apply)?

Respondents and stakeholder discussions showed good support for policy directed at existing homes and assistance directly to residents. When questioned further, respondents most favored programs targeted at:

• Down payment assistance to owners
• Housing rehabilitation loans
• Mortgage assistance to homeowners
• Public acquisition of dilapidated properties for infill development

Respondents were favorable about using public funds to remove dilapidated housing. They were more receptive to using funds for rehab of housing. Notably, many did not know and likely would need more information on the programs.

Does your city or county need increased or continued use of city/public funding for housing rehabilitation or renovations?

Lawrence has been trying new programs and approaches to address their unique housing situations. Voters have approved some initiatives but there is also the need to balance concerns from existing residents about providing greater price point variety.

Both counties have examples of great community partnerships that are trying to address the need for more affordable housing. In Lawrence, this is happening through the Affordable Housing Committee. In Topeka, existing nonprofit developers are filling important gaps. 

A strong job market promotes growth through increased employment opportunities, increased property tax base, and generally stable wages. Households will seek to live close to these jobs in Shawnee or Douglas Counties.

There is some concern, real or perceived, that approval processes can be improved to be more consistent and easier to navigate.

Like many of the rural counties in Kansas, Topeka has older neighborhoods with undervaluation issues. In these neighborhoods appraisals do not match the costs to build new or rehabilitate existing housing. To support neighborhood redevelopment, this gap will need to be addressed. 

In Douglas County, there needs to be ongoing efforts for collaboration and common understanding of the vision and goals for growth between stakeholders, developers, and public officials. This lack of understanding is most visible in NIMBYism (not in my backyard) that has occurred around certain projects. 

In and around Topeka, there are some fears in the development community about large-sized subdivision development and having to sit on lots for a long time. In and around Lawrence, the lot development challenges relate to infrastructure expansion and the associated costs this incurs for the city, developer, and eventual owner (special assessments).